What is the chance that the particular task will be on the critical path? What is the chance of your project being completed on schedule and within budget?
These software tools will help you find answer on the questions such as: There are a number of such tools available on market. To use Monte Carlo simulations with Microsoft Project you need to have add-on tool. Monte Carlo simulations have been proven an effective methodology for the analysis of project schedule with uncertainties. They are used to calculate the critical path, slack values, etc.
This procedure is then repeated until the probability distributions are sufficiently well represented to achieve the desired level of accuracy. The inputs can be task duration, cost, start and finish time, etc. total project duration, total project cost, project finish time. These input sample values are then used to calculate the results, i.e. uniform, normal, lognormal, triangular, beta, etc. Each simulation is generated by randomly pulling a sample value for each input variable from its defined probability distribution, e.g. Monte Carlo is a mathematical method used on risk analysis in many areas and is used to approximate the distribution of potential results based on probabilistic inputs. To overcome the challenges, associated with the PERT method, Monte Carlo simulations can be used as an alternative. Quantitative Risk Analysis with Microsoft Project Risk Management and Decision Analysis: Articles and White Papers To Project Decision and Risk Analysis Journal
Monte Carlo Simulations with Microsoft Project